Ready for Rishi?
Over the course of the weekend I was mentally preparing myself to write in this newsletter about the possibility of Boris Johnson once again being given the keys to Downing Street and the disastrous consequences that would have had for the rule of law in this country.
Now the former prime minister (and subject of investigation by the Privileges Committee) has stepped aside after failing to muster enough support amongst colleagues. Despite a valiant effort by Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak will become our next prime minister.
What does this mean for the law and the justice system? It seems like it was only five minutes since I wrote my preview of Sunak and Truss in the previous leadership election but there I focussed more on Truss as the likely overall victor.
Even though it is a mere five weeks since the previous leader was appointed, a lot has changed in that time thanks, in large part, due to the economic mismanagement of the Truss administration. This will be a tough few months for Sunak and some difficult decisions will have to be made.
One of the few successes of the Truss premiership was the agreement reached between the Criminal Bar Association and the Ministry of Justice that ensured strike action taken by barristers was suspended. Brandon Lewis engineered that deal and it will be interesting to see if he retains his position at Justice in the same way many expect Jeremy Hunt to remain as Chancellor.
As for other ministerial posts relating to the law and otherwise, it will be up to Sunak to decide whether he wants a reshuffle to appoint his own team or if he wants to offer stability by keeping key names in key places.
Suella Braverman showed her support for Sunak after Truss resigned but it seems unlikely she will return to high office after her short and ignominious time at the Home Office. Grant Shapps replaced her and might be seen as a steadier pair of hands.
Outside of personnel changes, there will be other tough decisions that the UK’s first British Asian prime minister will have to make. As the economy struggles, many predict that Sunak will move towards a policy of austerity and that could have consequences for the justice system.
With an already significant case backlog, further cuts to budgets may see things move to a breaking point. Furthermore if this is alongside other cuts to police or prisons then it will create fundamental gaps in the criminal justice system that will not be easily repaired.
Finally Sunak will also have decisions to face about various bills that currently sit before Parliament.
Human rights reform has struggled to gain a decent footing since the Bill of Rights was introduced by Dominic Raab but Sunak did say earlier this year that “we clearly have a problem with human rights law in this country and it is making it difficult for us to achieve our objectives.”
Meanwhile the Public Order Bill aligns with Tory objectives but is so unpopular that it might well be regarded as a distraction.
On Brexit, Sunak voted to leave the EU and it would not be surprising if he pushed forward with the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill that was introduced by Jacob Rees-Mogg. This proposal would totally overhaul the constitutional status of retained EU law here in the UK but if this is regarded as a way of also unleashing economic growth then it might be popular along the backbenches and across the country at large.
Sunak’s views on the EU and Brexit may also affect the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill that is due to be scrutinised by the House of Lords tomorrow. This change to the law is worrying not least because it threatens to breach international law. The new prime minister may wish to pursue this antagonistic relationship with the EU or he may just find it easier to withdraw the Bill after it undoubtedly struggles before the Lords.
Of course that latter approach will make his relationship with the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland that much more difficult but whoever said being prime minister would be easy…
This week on the podcast we take the time to look at an interesting tax case involving the opticians, Optical Express. When it comes to the rules around tax, a lot of power is given to HMRC but, as we discuss in this episode, while that power allows for an effective tax regime, it also opens the door to potential injustices.
Episode link: http://uklawweekly.com/2022-uksc-26/
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Marcus